***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 15.6 14.8 14.6 -2.8 13.7 22.6 16.9 18.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 15.0 13.9 14.6 -2.9 12.6 21.4 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 15.2 14.4 14.7 -2.9 14.7 23.7 16.5 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 8.5 8.4 12.1 -2.3 20.9 28.5 9.5 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 15.7 15.3 13.3 -2.6 18.7 27.0 16.8 18.2 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 14.8 15.4 12.0 -1.7 31.0 37.4 15.5 16.8 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 14.9 13.8 14.4 -2.9 11.8 20.7 16.2 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 3.5 3.3 11.4 -2.5 22.4 30.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 15.1 14.8 14.3 -2.6 18.7 26.7 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 15.4 15.1 12.4 -2.7 19.7 27.8 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 15.4 15.3 13.8 -2.4 21.4 28.8 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 14.6 14.8 12.6 -2.1 24.8 32.0 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 15.6 15.7 13.6 -2.0 25.4 33.4 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 15.0 14.1 13.6 -3.1 13.9 23.3 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 15.8 16.1 15.1 -1.7 26.3 31.5 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 15.9 15.9 13.3 -2.2 23.6 31.4 16.9 18.3 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 14.3 13.0 14.0 -3.1 10.3 19.2 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 14.7 14.3 11.3 -3.1 16.9 25.6 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 14.8 13.8 14.6 -2.8 13.3 22.4 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 9.6 9.2 9.3 -2.8 19.3 28.3 10.6 12.0 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 15.2 14.6 14.7 -2.8 16.1 24.7 16.4 17.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 14.9 13.2 14.0 -3.2 9.4 18.6 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 15.2 14.4 14.7 -2.8 14.9 24.2 16.6 18.1 19.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 14.8 14.1 13.5 -3.1 15.3 24.3 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 15.4 14.6 13.6 -2.8 14.8 23.5 16.6 18.0 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 15.2 16.0 12.4 -1.2 34.4 39.8 15.9 17.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 15.1 14.1 14.0 -2.9 12.9 21.8 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 16.0 16.1 13.5 -1.9 25.5 31.8 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 9.6 8.9 10.5 -3.1 16.4 25.5 10.7 12.2 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 14.8 13.8 14.6 -2.9 13.0 21.9 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------