***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 18.5 20.2 18.3 -0.2 46.2 46.0 19.2 20.4 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 18.2 19.6 18.0 -0.5 42.3 43.7 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 18.0 19.7 18.3 -0.3 45.0 45.7 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.6 13.4 16.1 0.4 56.8 52.8 11.0 12.8 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 18.4 20.5 17.0 0.1 52.0 50.4 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 20.6 20.3 16.1 1.4 68.9 60.0 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 17.9 19.4 18.1 -0.4 44.1 45.0 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.9 8.3 15.5 0.4 55.3 52.8 6.3 7.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.8 17.5 0.0 49.7 49.0 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 17.9 20.0 16.2 0.2 52.4 51.0 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 18.0 20.6 17.4 0.4 56.0 53.1 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 16.9 19.9 16.6 0.6 58.6 54.5 17.5 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 22.0 21.3 17.1 1.0 63.4 56.9 18.4 20.0 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 17.9 19.1 16.6 -0.8 38.8 42.0 18.6 20.2 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 18.1 21.1 18.3 0.9 64.3 56.6 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 18.3 21.5 17.1 0.8 60.8 55.4 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 17.6 18.6 17.5 -0.8 38.7 41.4 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 17.3 19.2 15.4 -0.1 48.4 48.9 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 17.7 19.2 18.0 -0.5 42.0 43.5 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 12.1 14.5 13.4 0.1 51.9 50.9 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 18.1 19.8 18.1 -0.3 46.2 46.8 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 17.9 18.7 17.2 -1.1 33.6 38.2 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 18.0 19.6 18.0 -0.5 42.5 43.9 18.6 20.3 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 17.7 19.3 16.9 -0.4 44.5 46.1 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 18.0 19.9 17.1 -0.1 47.8 47.4 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.9 21.3 16.6 1.6 72.9 62.0 17.6 19.1 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 17.9 19.7 17.7 -0.2 46.9 46.5 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 18.0 21.1 17.2 0.8 61.7 55.4 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 14.1 14.6 -0.2 48.0 48.9 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 17.7 19.4 18.2 -0.4 44.0 44.8 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------