***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 19.7 20.1 18.5 -0.7 32.9 39.0 20.1 21.0 21.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 19.4 19.8 18.4 -0.6 33.7 39.3 19.8 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 19.6 19.9 18.6 -0.7 32.6 39.0 19.9 20.9 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.4 13.1 16.2 -0.4 40.0 43.6 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 19.8 20.3 17.1 -0.5 36.6 41.7 20.1 21.0 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 18.2 19.4 15.4 0.0 50.2 49.2 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 19.1 19.6 18.4 -0.6 34.3 39.7 19.5 20.5 21.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.3 8.0 15.4 -0.4 39.9 43.6 7.7 8.6 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.7 17.6 -0.6 36.2 41.5 19.5 20.5 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 19.2 19.8 16.2 -0.5 37.6 42.4 19.6 20.4 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 19.3 20.1 17.2 -0.4 41.2 44.5 19.6 20.5 21.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 18.5 19.4 16.5 -0.2 44.4 46.2 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 19.3 20.4 16.5 -0.2 46.2 47.3 19.7 20.6 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 19.4 19.5 17.0 -0.9 28.2 35.6 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.8 18.1 0.0 51.0 50.0 19.9 20.7 21.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 19.8 20.9 16.8 -0.2 44.8 46.6 20.2 21.1 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 18.6 18.9 18.1 -0.8 30.7 37.1 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 18.8 19.2 15.5 -0.7 34.0 40.0 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 19.1 19.5 18.5 -0.7 33.2 39.1 19.5 20.5 21.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.2 13.2 -0.6 35.8 41.1 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 19.4 19.7 18.2 -0.7 32.0 38.6 19.8 20.7 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 19.2 19.2 17.8 -1.0 25.8 33.5 19.7 20.8 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 19.5 19.8 18.5 -0.7 33.3 39.2 19.8 20.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 19.1 19.4 17.1 -0.8 31.5 38.2 19.5 20.4 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 19.5 19.7 17.1 -0.7 31.7 38.3 19.8 20.7 21.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 18.7 20.5 16.2 0.5 61.9 55.3 19.0 19.9 20.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 19.3 19.6 17.8 -0.7 31.9 38.3 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 19.6 20.6 17.0 -0.1 46.6 47.6 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.0 14.6 -0.8 33.1 39.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 19.2 19.6 18.5 -0.6 33.8 39.5 19.6 20.6 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------