***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 20.6 25.4 21.1 145.7 77.2 65.3 5.4 10.5 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.5 20.5 18.1 152.5 78.8 67.5 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 20.3 24.2 20.1 142.6 76.3 65.1 5.8 10.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.2 23.2 22.0 123.3 70.2 58.3 9.0 14.3 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 21.2 22.8 21.5 130.2 72.8 61.2 6.2 11.5 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.1 15.8 20.5 107.3 63.7 53.7 7.2 11.4 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 17.1 21.9 18.3 156.0 79.4 68.2 4.9 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 24.3 28.3 22.8 114.1 66.6 57.0 16.0 21.6 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 20.7 21.7 21.1 129.4 72.5 61.2 5.5 10.5 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.9 20.9 23.3 119.3 68.7 58.4 7.4 12.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 20.6 20.5 122.6 69.9 58.2 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.9 18.4 20.0 117.5 68.1 57.1 8.5 12.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.0 20.0 20.4 108.8 64.7 53.7 8.6 13.9 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 22.5 25.8 25.6 142.2 76.7 66.2 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.2 18.9 17.8 119.1 69.2 55.5 6.7 11.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.7 20.8 20.8 122.9 70.1 57.9 7.7 12.6 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.0 23.3 17.5 158.7 80.3 67.0 4.8 8.9 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 20.6 22.4 25.5 126.6 71.7 61.7 7.7 12.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 18.4 21.8 18.5 147.7 77.5 66.6 5.5 9.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 19.0 20.3 27.1 127.0 71.8 63.1 6.6 11.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 18.8 21.3 21.5 139.8 75.6 63.6 5.9 10.3 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.8 19.4 17.7 149.5 78.1 65.9 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.1 17.7 19.5 142.1 76.2 64.7 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 23.2 27.0 23.5 138.0 75.2 63.9 6.5 12.2 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 21.6 25.9 23.0 140.5 75.8 64.1 4.8 10.1 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.2 14.0 18.4 102.5 62.0 53.0 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 20.1 24.8 21.9 143.7 76.6 65.3 5.1 10.2 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.6 16.2 19.9 116.0 67.8 55.2 5.4 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.9 28.7 26.2 131.6 73.4 64.0 8.8 15.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.3 19.4 19.0 150.7 78.2 67.1 4.1 7.8 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------