***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.5 10.8 18.3 112.4 66.7 57.8 4.2 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.1 8.9 17.2 123.1 70.5 58.4 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.3 18.9 117.3 68.4 58.8 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.1 14.0 19.1 109.0 65.8 56.3 5.3 9.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.6 19.3 113.7 67.1 57.7 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.1 18.8 96.7 59.0 48.2 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.0 8.9 16.9 118.7 69.2 57.0 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.7 18.8 100.8 61.7 52.4 9.3 14.4 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.6 11.0 19.4 112.0 66.5 57.2 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.6 19.7 102.6 62.7 54.0 4.3 7.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.0 19.3 107.1 64.2 55.4 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.7 17.9 104.6 62.9 52.9 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.1 18.8 106.1 64.0 54.0 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.4 22.7 115.1 67.5 56.9 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.4 10.6 17.8 105.3 64.5 53.8 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.7 11.7 18.4 107.6 64.5 54.6 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.0 11.3 17.3 129.0 72.4 59.2 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.6 20.6 102.5 62.2 53.7 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.1 9.8 17.8 123.1 70.4 58.8 3.3 5.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.0 21.8 103.7 62.7 54.8 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.6 19.2 115.8 67.9 58.2 3.3 5.7 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.1 17.5 124.6 71.0 58.0 2.3 4.9 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.6 19.2 121.8 70.0 59.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.1 20.7 111.6 65.9 56.8 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.3 10.9 21.2 113.1 66.9 57.9 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.5 17.7 97.4 59.1 49.8 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.6 11.0 20.0 111.1 66.1 57.4 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.6 17.2 103.3 63.9 53.6 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.1 17.7 21.7 103.2 62.1 53.8 7.4 12.6 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.7 9.3 17.4 118.1 68.8 57.6 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------