***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 5.5 12.0 75.7 51.1 40.5 3.0 5.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.4 11.5 78.4 53.1 45.1 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.7 7.5 12.2 78.4 52.5 41.9 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.2 15.5 15.5 89.1 57.8 45.8 7.1 12.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.2 14.7 86.9 56.7 45.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.6 16.9 83.0 54.0 43.3 5.3 9.4 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.5 11.0 75.3 51.8 44.2 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 24.2 21.7 16.2 85.1 55.0 45.7 11.0 18.9 29.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.5 10.0 15.3 88.0 57.0 45.2 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 10.9 17.1 85.8 55.2 45.0 5.3 9.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.7 13.6 83.4 55.8 45.1 4.5 8.2 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.4 11.8 13.9 83.2 55.1 44.5 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.6 10.9 15.8 84.2 55.7 43.7 5.7 9.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 11.4 16.6 80.0 52.1 42.5 5.3 10.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.1 7.6 13.0 81.9 55.6 44.8 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.1 14.2 82.0 54.7 43.1 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.3 11.9 81.5 55.3 48.1 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.0 11.1 18.1 83.1 52.3 42.8 5.5 10.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.5 9.0 11.8 79.2 53.4 44.8 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 11.5 18.5 84.0 52.8 44.1 6.2 10.7 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.7 8.1 13.9 84.5 56.1 43.3 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.1 12.5 82.9 56.1 49.4 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 9.7 12.3 79.8 53.4 43.7 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.4 10.2 15.7 82.3 52.9 42.5 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.1 15.7 87.5 56.8 44.6 3.9 7.3 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.3 8.6 13.2 75.0 50.9 41.2 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.3 13.6 79.9 53.2 42.5 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.7 7.8 14.1 81.8 54.9 43.5 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.6 13.6 18.4 84.5 52.9 43.8 6.8 12.4 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.4 11.2 75.2 51.3 42.9 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------