***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 47.5 49.9 66.5 105.2 60.5 54.9 32.3 42.6 54.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 38.1 41.9 59.1 105.6 60.9 56.4 24.1 34.2 46.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 48.8 51.1 65.8 105.6 60.8 55.3 31.8 43.0 55.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 67.6 69.4 74.2 104.7 60.1 54.7 51.5 62.4 74.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 51.4 55.0 73.0 107.0 61.8 55.4 34.1 45.6 58.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 36.1 46.7 74.2 92.4 47.2 45.4 36.6 48.6 62.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 40.2 43.3 58.5 104.7 60.3 55.9 25.6 35.9 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 92.4 89.2 76.8 98.0 53.4 50.0 73.4 86.4 99.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 52.5 55.9 74.3 107.0 61.8 55.4 35.6 46.9 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 60.7 59.2 80.5 100.6 55.9 51.6 43.4 54.9 67.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 51.9 50.3 69.0 100.6 56.3 51.7 36.0 46.2 57.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 54.7 53.1 67.9 98.1 53.8 50.1 43.5 51.4 59.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 51.9 48.4 72.1 94.8 50.9 47.8 38.7 47.8 57.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 62.2 63.6 84.5 103.9 59.2 54.4 41.3 55.1 70.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 49.0 47.2 63.5 98.1 55.6 51.3 32.3 43.2 55.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 50.0 48.1 69.1 98.9 54.9 51.0 35.5 45.0 55.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 45.5 53.3 59.6 110.0 64.0 58.0 28.6 41.1 55.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 64.0 64.8 86.6 101.9 57.2 53.4 45.7 58.7 72.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 49.2 52.6 60.7 105.0 60.4 55.9 32.9 44.4 57.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 57.2 58.0 90.3 102.7 57.8 54.1 42.3 52.7 64.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 46.7 51.0 71.8 110.0 64.1 57.3 33.2 42.3 52.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 41.3 44.9 61.4 107.0 61.9 57.0 28.4 37.6 47.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 45.3 48.1 64.8 105.6 60.7 55.9 30.2 40.6 52.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 61.3 64.5 78.9 105.3 60.3 55.3 41.8 55.3 70.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 53.4 59.2 77.7 109.0 63.3 56.9 34.3 47.2 61.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 46.6 38.8 65.0 89.1 45.0 42.7 32.1 41.6 52.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 51.3 54.5 71.3 105.5 60.7 55.2 33.4 45.6 59.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 48.4 46.2 67.5 97.8 54.9 50.8 33.5 43.2 54.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 79.0 80.9 88.9 103.5 58.7 54.8 57.8 72.7 88.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 41.5 43.9 60.4 104.6 60.1 55.6 25.4 36.2 49.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------