***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 8.3 9.2 9.8 1.9 84.0 78.7 6.2 7.1 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 8.0 8.6 9.1 1.5 78.5 73.2 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 10.1 11.2 10.1 2.0 85.4 80.1 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 4.7 6.0 7.5 2.3 87.9 82.5 2.0 3.1 4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 6.9 8.2 8.7 2.5 89.0 83.8 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 6.1 7.9 7.0 3.8 95.7 92.5 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 8.1 8.7 9.2 1.6 81.0 75.4 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 0.7 2.6 6.9 3.3 94.3 90.5 -2.0 -1.0 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 7.5 8.6 8.7 2.3 88.4 83.3 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 7.7 9.1 7.6 2.9 92.2 87.9 5.2 6.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 7.5 8.9 8.7 2.9 92.0 88.1 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 6.1 7.9 8.0 3.4 95.0 91.2 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 7.2 9.0 8.1 3.6 94.6 91.5 4.7 5.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 8.1 9.2 8.4 2.2 88.1 83.4 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 8.4 9.5 9.1 2.5 90.3 86.3 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 8.3 10.2 8.5 3.4 94.5 90.9 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 8.1 8.4 8.7 1.2 74.7 69.9 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 5.7 7.1 7.3 3.1 93.3 89.3 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.4 9.2 1.5 79.6 74.3 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 2.9 4.6 5.8 3.6 94.5 90.8 0.6 1.4 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 7.7 8.9 9.9 2.3 88.0 82.9 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.6 9.0 1.3 76.2 71.4 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 7.4 8.2 9.3 1.8 83.0 77.3 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 7.5 8.7 8.7 2.4 88.8 84.2 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.9 9.3 2.1 85.9 80.6 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 6.9 9.1 7.5 3.9 96.6 93.2 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 8.5 9.6 9.6 2.0 84.8 79.4 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 6.6 7.9 8.5 2.8 90.8 86.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 5.1 6.9 6.5 3.1 92.8 89.0 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 8.2 8.9 9.5 1.7 81.2 75.8 5.7 6.8 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------