***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 7.3 7.1 7.6 -1.7 21.2 26.2 8.0 9.1 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 5.9 5.5 7.1 -1.9 17.5 23.0 7.1 8.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 8.0 7.8 7.7 -1.7 20.2 25.5 8.9 10.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.6 2.7 5.2 -1.4 23.9 28.9 3.5 4.9 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 5.1 4.9 5.8 -1.5 22.1 28.1 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.4 4.8 3.9 -0.7 35.3 38.2 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 6.2 5.8 7.2 -1.9 17.7 23.1 7.2 8.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 3.6 -1.3 22.9 29.2 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 5.7 5.4 6.0 -1.5 19.3 25.7 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 5.9 5.7 4.4 -1.5 20.5 27.2 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 5.6 5.6 5.5 -1.2 24.2 30.0 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.2 4.2 4.6 -1.2 26.0 31.6 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 5.4 5.6 4.5 -1.0 28.7 33.4 5.8 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 6.3 5.8 5.6 -1.7 17.5 23.6 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 6.8 7.1 6.9 -0.9 30.2 33.5 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.5 6.6 5.1 -1.1 27.9 33.0 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 6.7 6.2 6.8 -2.0 15.6 21.3 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 3.7 3.4 3.9 -1.6 19.3 26.4 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 6.2 5.8 7.2 -1.8 17.7 23.4 7.1 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 0.9 0.8 1.9 -1.5 21.5 28.8 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 5.6 5.4 7.2 -1.6 20.4 26.0 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 6.0 5.4 6.9 -1.9 15.8 22.0 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 6.1 5.7 7.1 -1.7 18.0 24.1 6.9 8.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 5.7 5.4 5.7 -1.7 18.5 24.7 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 6.0 5.7 6.6 -1.7 21.3 26.3 6.8 8.1 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.5 5.8 4.1 -0.8 33.9 37.3 5.8 6.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 6.0 5.8 7.2 -1.7 21.8 26.8 7.0 8.6 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.9 5.1 5.9 -1.0 29.3 33.4 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.5 3.1 -1.6 18.6 26.2 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 6.2 5.8 7.4 -1.8 18.7 24.1 7.2 8.6 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------