***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9.3 9.8 10.8 -1.0 32.6 36.3 9.8 10.8 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.5 -0.9 33.0 36.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.2 11.5 10.9 -0.9 32.0 35.9 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.4 6.8 8.3 -0.8 34.0 37.6 6.7 7.7 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.4 8.5 -0.8 34.3 37.7 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.6 6.6 -0.5 38.6 41.0 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.6 -0.8 34.5 37.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.2 2.6 6.5 -0.6 37.3 39.8 2.4 3.3 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.3 8.8 -0.8 34.6 38.1 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.9 9.3 7.4 -0.7 35.7 38.8 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.7 9.1 8.0 -0.7 36.3 39.0 8.9 9.7 10.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.5 7.3 -0.6 37.3 39.8 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.7 6.7 -0.7 35.4 38.5 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 9.5 9.6 8.7 -1.0 31.0 35.1 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.4 9.6 -0.6 36.2 39.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.4 9.8 7.5 -0.6 36.5 39.4 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.4 -0.9 33.3 37.2 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 7.7 6.9 -0.7 35.4 39.0 7.5 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 -1.0 32.0 35.9 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.3 4.6 -0.6 38.1 40.8 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 8.8 9.2 10.1 -0.9 32.8 36.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.2 9.4 10.1 -1.0 31.2 35.5 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 9.3 9.5 10.4 -1.0 31.5 35.4 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.3 8.6 -0.8 33.0 37.0 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 9.1 9.5 9.3 -1.0 32.3 36.0 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.6 6.5 -0.6 38.0 40.1 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 9.5 10.0 10.2 -0.9 33.4 36.8 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.4 8.7 -0.7 36.2 39.2 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 6.7 6.2 -0.7 35.7 39.1 6.5 7.4 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.7 -0.9 33.4 36.9 10.0 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------