***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 20.3 20.9 19.2 1.5 75.6 69.1 17.0 18.5 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 20.0 20.1 18.8 1.0 68.8 63.7 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 20.3 21.2 19.5 1.7 77.6 70.2 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 13.0 14.5 16.9 2.4 85.3 77.3 9.6 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 20.5 22.5 18.6 2.6 87.9 78.9 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 19.2 22.9 18.0 4.4 97.3 91.5 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 19.5 19.6 18.7 1.0 68.1 62.9 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 8.4 11.4 17.5 3.6 93.8 86.3 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 20.0 21.8 19.4 2.5 86.3 77.4 16.5 18.0 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 20.2 22.5 18.0 3.0 89.8 81.0 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 20.3 22.8 19.3 3.0 91.1 81.8 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 19.5 22.6 18.4 3.6 94.4 86.8 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 20.4 23.6 19.2 3.5 94.7 86.2 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 20.4 21.0 18.4 1.6 75.3 68.1 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 19.7 21.0 19.2 2.1 82.9 75.1 16.8 18.1 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 20.9 23.9 19.0 3.4 93.9 85.4 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.9 18.2 0.8 64.1 60.0 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 19.9 21.9 17.2 3.0 88.6 80.6 16.2 17.7 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 19.9 20.1 18.9 1.1 69.8 64.4 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 15.2 18.4 16.0 4.0 94.7 88.9 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 20.3 21.4 19.8 2.1 81.9 73.8 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.6 18.3 0.7 62.0 58.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 20.4 20.9 19.1 1.3 73.3 66.8 17.0 18.6 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 20.1 21.4 18.7 2.1 81.4 73.2 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 20.1 21.0 18.3 1.7 77.8 70.8 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 19.8 24.1 18.2 4.4 98.0 92.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 19.8 20.4 18.6 1.4 74.4 68.1 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 20.0 21.7 18.2 2.7 87.6 79.6 16.9 18.2 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 15.0 17.3 16.8 3.3 90.4 83.0 11.1 12.6 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 19.8 20.3 19.0 1.3 72.4 66.4 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------