***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 18.9 18.8 16.9 -2.2 21.5 27.1 19.7 21.0 22.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 18.1 17.6 16.6 -2.5 18.3 24.2 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 17.9 17.8 17.0 -2.3 21.4 26.9 19.1 20.6 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.2 14.7 -1.5 29.3 33.6 11.6 13.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 18.4 18.7 15.6 -1.8 26.7 31.9 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 16.9 17.8 14.1 -0.9 37.9 40.1 17.3 18.9 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 17.8 17.3 16.5 -2.5 18.6 24.3 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.1 6.5 14.0 -1.5 30.8 35.0 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 17.8 18.1 16.3 -1.8 25.9 31.1 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 18.1 18.4 14.8 -1.7 28.2 33.0 18.8 20.2 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 18.3 18.6 15.9 -1.5 30.0 34.7 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 17.4 17.9 15.1 -1.3 32.6 36.7 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 18.4 18.8 15.3 -1.3 33.2 37.0 18.7 20.3 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 17.8 17.6 15.6 -2.5 20.7 26.1 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 18.5 18.8 16.7 -1.4 30.8 34.2 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 18.7 19.1 15.5 -1.4 31.8 36.0 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 17.7 17.0 16.3 -2.6 18.0 23.9 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 17.4 17.6 14.0 -2.0 26.0 30.8 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 17.7 17.2 16.6 -2.5 18.5 24.4 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 12.2 12.4 11.7 -1.9 26.3 31.1 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 18.0 18.0 16.9 -2.1 23.3 28.8 19.0 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 18.0 17.3 16.2 -2.7 17.2 23.3 19.1 20.7 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 17.9 17.6 16.7 -2.5 19.7 25.5 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 17.6 17.6 15.6 -2.2 23.0 28.0 18.7 20.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 18.1 17.9 15.6 -2.1 22.3 28.0 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 17.6 18.5 14.6 -0.7 39.6 41.9 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 18.0 17.8 16.2 -2.3 20.6 26.4 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 18.5 19.0 15.7 -1.2 33.0 36.4 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.1 -2.0 25.3 30.1 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 17.7 17.4 16.7 -2.4 19.3 25.2 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------