***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.3 19.3 -0.9 39.0 40.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.1 19.2 -0.9 38.5 39.9 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.4 19.5 -0.9 38.9 40.1 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.0 17.3 -0.8 40.5 41.3 13.4 14.8 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.5 17.9 -0.8 40.9 41.9 20.9 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.2 16.1 -0.5 43.7 44.7 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.9 19.2 -0.8 39.2 40.4 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.8 9.0 16.3 -0.7 42.0 42.7 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 20.0 21.0 18.1 -0.8 41.0 42.0 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.0 17.0 -0.8 41.2 42.2 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 20.2 21.3 17.7 -0.6 42.4 43.1 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.1 20.4 17.3 -0.6 43.0 43.5 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.2 16.7 -0.7 42.4 43.4 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 20.2 21.0 17.7 -1.0 38.2 39.9 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 20.4 21.4 18.3 -0.6 41.7 42.0 20.7 21.9 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.7 21.8 17.4 -0.6 42.9 43.6 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 19.7 20.4 19.0 -0.9 38.9 40.2 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 19.3 20.3 16.4 -0.9 39.8 41.1 19.7 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 20.1 20.8 19.2 -0.9 38.2 39.7 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.2 13.8 -0.9 39.2 40.3 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.2 18.9 -0.9 39.5 40.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.1 20.9 18.9 -0.9 38.0 39.6 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.1 19.2 -0.9 38.4 39.9 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.8 17.8 -1.0 39.1 40.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.1 17.7 -0.9 38.3 39.5 20.7 21.9 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.7 16.7 -0.4 45.1 45.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.0 18.5 -0.9 38.6 39.7 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.4 17.7 -0.7 42.1 42.6 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.2 15.1 15.4 -1.0 39.0 40.4 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.0 19.2 -0.9 38.9 40.2 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------