***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 21.4 21.7 20.1 -1.5 29.3 33.4 22.0 23.3 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 21.2 21.6 20.0 -1.5 29.6 33.8 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 21.5 21.7 20.3 -1.7 28.5 32.6 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 14.2 14.5 18.0 -1.5 30.6 34.1 14.7 16.0 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 21.5 21.8 18.5 -1.6 29.9 33.6 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.2 20.7 16.5 -1.3 34.1 36.7 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.3 20.1 -1.5 30.4 34.5 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.6 9.9 16.9 -1.4 32.2 35.6 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 20.8 21.2 18.7 -1.7 29.3 33.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 20.9 21.1 17.5 -1.6 30.6 34.2 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 21.1 21.4 18.3 -1.5 31.7 35.0 21.5 22.8 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 20.5 20.9 17.9 -1.3 33.3 36.5 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 21.4 21.8 17.2 -1.3 33.8 36.8 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 21.4 21.6 18.4 -1.7 28.8 33.0 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 21.5 21.9 18.9 -1.3 32.1 35.3 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.2 17.9 -1.4 32.6 35.7 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 20.5 20.9 20.0 -1.5 30.6 34.7 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 20.6 20.8 17.0 -1.7 30.0 33.8 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 20.9 21.1 20.1 -1.6 29.1 33.2 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.8 16.0 14.6 -1.6 31.2 34.9 16.2 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 21.0 21.3 19.6 -1.7 28.1 32.2 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 21.0 21.4 19.8 -1.5 29.7 33.8 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 21.4 21.6 20.0 -1.6 28.8 32.9 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 21.0 21.1 18.4 -1.7 28.6 32.7 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.4 18.4 -1.6 28.6 32.7 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 20.7 21.6 17.3 -1.0 37.8 40.1 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 21.1 21.3 19.3 -1.5 29.4 33.5 21.6 22.9 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 21.4 21.8 18.3 -1.4 31.7 34.9 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 15.8 15.9 16.1 -1.7 30.5 34.1 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.1 21.4 20.1 -1.5 29.7 33.8 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------