***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 19.8 20.3 18.9 -0.8 33.1 35.0 20.3 21.2 22.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 19.5 19.8 18.6 -1.0 29.5 32.2 20.0 21.1 22.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 19.7 20.2 19.1 -0.8 33.1 35.2 20.2 21.2 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.4 16.7 -0.3 42.6 42.8 12.9 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.8 17.7 -0.4 42.0 42.2 20.3 21.2 22.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.1 16.2 0.4 58.7 55.7 18.8 19.6 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 19.2 19.5 18.6 -0.9 29.9 32.5 19.7 20.7 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.9 16.2 0.0 50.2 48.7 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 19.5 20.2 18.1 -0.4 40.5 41.0 19.8 20.7 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.4 16.8 -0.3 44.4 44.1 19.8 20.7 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.1 20.6 17.8 -0.2 46.7 46.0 19.9 20.8 21.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.1 17.2 0.1 52.0 50.1 19.1 20.0 20.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.9 17.1 0.1 51.3 49.5 19.9 20.8 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 19.6 19.9 17.5 -0.9 31.0 33.8 20.1 21.1 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 21.3 20.6 18.3 -0.3 43.3 43.4 20.0 21.0 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 21.7 21.4 17.4 0.0 50.0 48.6 20.4 21.4 22.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 18.8 19.0 18.4 -1.0 28.7 31.6 19.3 20.4 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 19.1 19.8 16.1 -0.4 41.7 41.9 19.3 20.2 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 19.2 19.5 18.7 -1.0 29.3 32.3 19.7 20.8 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.1 14.0 -0.1 47.7 46.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 19.6 20.2 18.8 -0.7 36.0 37.4 20.0 21.0 21.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 19.3 19.5 18.3 -1.1 26.8 30.4 19.9 21.0 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 19.6 19.9 18.7 -0.9 30.5 33.3 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 19.3 19.8 17.6 -0.7 35.2 36.9 19.7 20.6 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.0 17.5 -0.8 33.8 35.5 20.0 20.9 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 20.3 20.7 16.7 0.6 62.8 59.1 19.2 20.1 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 19.4 19.8 18.2 -0.8 32.0 34.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 21.3 20.8 17.5 -0.2 46.8 46.3 20.1 21.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.8 15.4 -0.4 42.5 42.4 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 19.3 19.7 18.8 -0.9 31.1 33.6 19.8 20.9 21.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------