***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.2 16.2 13.1 100.6 63.3 55.3 7.1 11.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.0 14.0 12.5 114.5 68.3 58.8 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.2 12.2 91.8 59.4 52.6 6.0 10.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.6 15.2 12.2 73.3 51.3 44.1 9.5 14.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 9.2 10.3 69.6 48.0 42.1 5.3 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 6.5 8.7 10.1 60.9 39.9 33.1 7.2 11.1 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.2 12.3 111.2 67.1 57.6 4.2 7.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 11.2 13.0 10.9 54.9 33.2 29.6 13.0 18.9 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.5 9.9 11.1 73.7 50.9 45.3 5.3 9.7 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.2 9.6 12.0 64.3 41.1 36.5 7.4 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.0 9.0 9.9 65.1 44.2 38.1 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 6.0 7.6 8.9 54.8 34.5 29.9 7.3 11.3 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 6.9 8.8 8.7 52.1 35.9 30.3 7.9 13.0 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 13.6 13.3 75.4 51.8 46.4 7.9 12.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.8 10.7 9.7 70.1 52.7 43.1 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.8 9.6 9.7 64.5 43.9 37.4 6.9 11.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.0 11.4 107.4 66.2 56.7 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 9.0 13.0 66.2 41.5 37.4 6.8 11.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.0 16.1 12.7 111.1 66.9 58.1 5.0 9.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.2 6.5 12.3 56.9 32.5 30.0 6.6 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.3 11.6 81.8 55.2 49.7 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.6 12.3 11.4 101.2 63.6 54.0 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.0 12.7 97.6 62.1 55.0 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.1 12.4 12.2 74.7 50.3 44.7 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.6 13.1 12.9 87.7 58.7 52.5 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 3.8 4.2 7.2 41.3 25.5 21.5 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.5 15.6 13.7 98.5 62.7 55.6 6.0 10.8 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 9.4 11.0 71.5 50.3 41.5 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.3 11.4 12.7 62.8 38.7 35.2 9.5 15.4 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.5 13.0 12.5 105.9 65.0 56.4 4.7 8.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------