***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.6 10.7 16.7 129.4 72.5 63.7 2.9 5.4 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.3 9.3 15.6 127.0 71.6 59.6 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.4 15.3 117.1 68.1 59.2 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 12.8 13.1 17.5 122.0 70.0 60.7 4.0 7.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.0 9.0 16.1 111.0 65.7 57.2 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.3 16.8 91.9 56.6 49.4 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.0 10.1 16.0 134.0 73.8 62.0 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.0 17.2 16.2 96.1 60.0 53.1 9.4 13.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.7 15.1 102.5 62.2 54.1 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.1 9.4 16.9 101.9 62.3 55.5 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.3 16.8 102.4 61.9 54.7 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.3 15.3 95.6 59.0 52.2 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.1 16.7 95.2 58.4 50.9 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.2 11.0 18.4 102.4 63.1 56.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.9 15.5 115.4 67.4 57.0 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.1 15.7 98.7 60.0 51.7 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.9 10.8 16.8 142.5 76.1 62.6 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.0 16.9 94.8 56.9 51.6 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.6 15.6 120.8 69.7 58.8 3.0 5.1 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 8.7 10.8 20.2 105.9 63.3 57.1 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.3 8.3 15.6 115.5 67.4 58.3 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 9.4 11.0 17.0 136.7 74.5 62.5 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.6 8.8 16.0 113.9 67.4 58.9 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.3 15.8 95.2 57.7 51.3 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.7 11.2 18.8 128.5 72.1 62.7 4.1 6.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 7.1 15.3 85.7 53.8 46.4 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 7.0 11.3 18.8 133.1 73.6 64.2 3.2 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.2 14.9 103.8 63.2 53.7 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.7 18.3 96.6 58.1 52.8 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.2 9.2 15.8 126.5 71.5 61.0 3.0 5.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------