***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.9 17.7 102.4 64.3 56.9 3.7 6.5 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.9 16.5 111.6 67.2 57.7 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.8 11.6 17.4 109.9 66.6 57.8 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.2 20.5 19.6 108.6 66.5 55.3 7.4 13.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.3 14.3 19.7 118.1 69.2 56.1 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.1 16.8 22.7 116.7 68.3 54.9 5.4 9.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.8 15.8 106.5 65.6 57.2 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 24.8 34.3 21.3 122.3 70.3 57.6 11.2 19.4 30.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.5 15.4 20.5 120.5 69.8 55.8 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 19.2 23.1 125.6 71.4 57.6 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.6 17.4 18.7 123.5 70.9 57.0 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.4 19.6 19.0 123.2 70.6 57.1 7.0 11.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.9 16.0 22.0 123.9 70.8 56.6 4.9 8.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.0 19.1 22.9 111.1 66.1 56.4 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.8 18.5 108.9 67.0 55.1 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 15.0 20.3 124.8 71.2 56.6 5.1 8.6 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.9 17.4 16.7 120.6 70.1 58.9 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.9 20.7 24.7 122.2 69.8 56.9 6.6 11.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 16.3 17.0 111.7 67.2 58.1 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 19.8 25.7 127.9 71.6 58.5 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.7 13.0 18.6 115.3 68.4 57.3 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.8 18.1 126.0 71.6 60.3 5.2 8.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.4 17.0 17.8 112.4 67.5 58.5 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.7 17.5 21.1 110.1 66.1 55.7 5.8 10.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.7 19.7 103.0 64.2 55.9 4.1 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.3 13.7 19.1 116.1 68.2 56.0 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.5 18.5 99.8 63.4 56.2 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.5 19.3 110.3 67.1 54.2 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.2 24.5 24.6 124.3 70.6 57.5 7.6 13.5 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.0 16.4 106.5 65.5 57.0 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------