***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9.5 15.5 14.9 125.0 71.4 60.2 4.0 7.8 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 13.2 14.1 136.1 74.4 60.1 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.9 14.6 15.0 124.8 71.4 59.1 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.4 20.5 17.4 122.1 70.7 58.7 4.9 10.1 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.5 16.0 17.0 128.6 72.5 61.7 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 11.6 15.8 17.4 110.7 66.9 59.7 5.2 9.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.9 14.6 13.9 132.1 73.3 58.4 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.4 24.7 18.3 120.3 70.1 62.7 10.5 16.0 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 9.3 15.5 17.7 127.9 72.3 61.6 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.5 19.5 19.9 124.2 71.2 62.2 5.7 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.0 12.0 15.9 124.2 71.4 62.1 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.5 13.1 15.3 114.4 68.4 60.8 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 6.3 8.5 15.9 105.5 65.4 58.2 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 9.7 17.8 22.8 133.8 73.8 61.4 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.3 15.6 112.0 68.1 54.5 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 8.3 11.7 16.1 118.1 69.4 60.1 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.2 17.1 13.5 128.6 72.5 57.9 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.8 21.0 21.8 125.0 71.3 62.0 6.3 11.4 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.4 18.9 14.7 134.5 74.0 59.9 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 17.0 17.7 21.2 123.6 71.0 64.4 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.4 15.7 16.4 127.8 72.3 60.8 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.1 17.0 15.0 131.4 73.3 60.3 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.0 13.0 15.8 129.6 72.7 58.7 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.4 19.8 19.9 128.0 72.2 61.1 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.8 18.2 17.6 126.4 71.8 61.1 5.3 9.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.6 13.7 99.1 62.9 53.4 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.6 17.3 16.4 126.1 71.7 61.2 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.6 14.3 17.0 120.6 70.5 58.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 15.5 23.4 21.3 121.2 70.2 61.9 6.7 12.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.0 16.9 14.5 136.2 74.4 60.4 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------