***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 45.4 52.5 62.5 113.2 66.0 61.2 32.8 42.2 52.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 49.1 50.9 58.7 121.4 70.6 64.0 24.2 34.4 46.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 47.0 53.1 59.9 110.4 64.2 59.0 31.4 42.3 54.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 67.0 70.0 66.8 105.4 60.9 56.1 50.3 62.0 74.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 49.0 51.9 63.1 106.5 61.5 56.6 33.3 43.8 55.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 55.4 50.3 67.0 95.5 52.0 47.2 36.6 48.9 62.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 50.9 52.1 57.9 119.9 69.7 63.1 25.8 36.2 48.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 89.9 86.5 66.8 96.3 52.4 49.4 71.7 84.5 98.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 50.0 52.8 64.4 106.1 61.3 55.6 33.8 44.4 56.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 58.6 59.2 71.8 102.8 58.1 53.7 42.0 53.5 65.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 48.7 49.2 61.3 102.9 58.3 53.8 34.8 44.2 54.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 54.0 51.3 58.5 95.8 52.2 48.7 42.2 50.2 58.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 36.5 47.3 63.3 94.4 51.1 47.4 37.7 46.6 56.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 58.6 62.5 77.3 105.5 60.7 55.8 39.8 52.9 68.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 44.9 46.7 59.3 101.8 59.2 53.5 30.7 40.7 51.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 48.6 48.3 61.8 101.6 57.4 52.3 34.7 44.0 54.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 59.8 64.0 58.3 124.9 72.1 64.8 28.4 41.3 56.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 61.9 62.2 76.4 101.1 56.8 52.7 44.4 56.7 70.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 60.3 61.3 59.9 118.8 69.1 62.8 34.2 45.6 58.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 55.9 56.4 79.4 101.6 56.9 52.9 40.1 51.2 63.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 44.3 48.6 62.2 109.7 63.8 58.5 31.8 40.5 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 54.1 56.3 61.5 124.3 71.9 64.9 29.0 39.3 50.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 44.9 52.1 62.3 113.0 65.9 59.9 29.5 40.0 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 59.2 59.3 69.0 102.0 57.8 53.7 39.8 52.8 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 51.1 56.9 69.1 110.5 64.3 59.6 35.7 46.6 58.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 29.9 36.7 55.2 84.4 40.9 39.4 32.3 42.0 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 48.5 57.3 67.4 113.2 66.0 61.5 33.0 44.3 57.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 46.6 47.3 62.2 101.3 58.3 52.7 32.6 42.2 52.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 76.5 75.6 76.9 100.1 55.8 52.1 55.4 70.1 86.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 41.7 52.8 59.2 117.6 68.6 62.6 25.6 36.9 50.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------