***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 5.3 5.4 6.0 -1.7 20.5 22.2 6.2 7.2 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 4.2 4.2 5.7 -1.8 18.8 20.7 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 6.4 6.4 6.2 -1.7 20.3 22.0 7.4 8.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.0 2.1 3.9 -1.1 31.3 32.7 2.2 3.3 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.7 3.8 4.7 -1.3 26.9 28.5 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.1 2.3 -0.7 37.1 38.0 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 4.9 4.8 5.7 -1.8 19.2 21.0 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -2.4 -2.2 2.0 -1.3 27.4 28.6 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.8 5.0 5.0 -1.1 29.2 30.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.1 3.1 -1.2 29.3 30.3 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.7 4.8 4.4 -1.2 28.6 29.8 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.2 3.4 2.9 -1.4 25.2 26.6 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.8 4.9 3.5 -1.0 32.9 33.9 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 5.6 4.7 -1.1 30.6 31.9 5.8 6.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.2 5.7 -0.9 32.9 34.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.6 5.6 3.9 -1.1 30.7 31.8 5.7 6.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 4.9 5.0 5.6 -1.7 21.4 23.2 5.9 7.0 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.4 2.6 -1.1 31.0 32.0 3.5 4.4 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 4.5 4.4 5.7 -1.8 18.5 20.5 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 0.2 0.4 0.6 -1.3 28.0 29.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 4.4 4.6 5.8 -1.4 25.1 26.5 5.1 6.2 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 4.1 4.1 5.8 -1.7 20.0 21.8 5.1 6.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 4.5 4.4 5.7 -1.7 19.1 20.9 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.0 4.8 -1.1 30.3 31.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 4.4 4.4 5.3 -1.6 23.2 25.2 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.7 2.5 -1.0 32.6 33.9 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 4.2 4.3 5.5 -1.8 21.1 23.1 5.4 6.8 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.3 4.6 -0.9 33.5 34.5 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.2 1.8 -1.2 29.9 31.0 2.4 3.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 4.7 4.6 5.9 -1.9 18.3 20.1 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------