***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.2 -1.2 29.8 35.7 8.4 9.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.2 7.8 -1.3 28.4 34.5 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.2 -1.2 28.9 35.5 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 3.8 5.6 -1.0 31.8 37.9 3.9 5.2 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.9 6.1 6.3 -1.0 32.2 38.7 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.6 4.9 3.9 -0.8 34.3 40.6 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.8 -1.3 28.0 34.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 3.9 -0.8 33.0 40.1 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.6 6.7 6.4 -0.9 31.8 38.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 6.9 4.7 -0.9 31.7 39.2 6.9 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.2 6.2 5.6 -1.0 30.5 37.7 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.6 4.8 4.7 -0.9 32.2 39.5 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.8 6.0 4.5 -0.9 31.5 38.7 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.2 6.0 -1.1 28.4 36.3 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.3 6.9 -1.0 29.2 35.8 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.0 7.2 5.1 -1.0 31.0 38.2 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.6 -1.2 29.3 35.2 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 4.7 4.1 -0.8 32.7 40.2 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.8 -1.3 28.1 34.5 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.7 2.0 2.4 -0.7 35.9 42.2 1.8 2.8 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.5 6.7 7.6 -1.0 31.6 38.0 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.0 7.6 -1.2 29.0 35.3 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.1 6.9 7.6 -1.3 27.3 34.2 7.4 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.7 6.1 -1.0 30.2 37.9 6.8 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.1 7.2 -1.2 30.1 36.2 7.3 8.6 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.7 6.1 4.1 -0.8 35.0 41.5 6.0 6.8 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.3 7.7 -1.2 30.1 36.2 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.5 5.5 6.0 -1.0 30.7 37.5 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.2 3.5 -0.8 32.7 40.1 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 7.3 7.3 8.0 -1.3 27.9 34.1 7.7 9.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------