***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.5 0.0 50.6 49.5 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.7 10.2 0.0 49.2 48.9 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.6 10.4 0.0 49.5 49.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.4 7.8 0.0 50.7 49.5 5.4 6.4 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.7 8.1 7.9 0.0 49.2 49.2 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 6.0 0.2 54.0 52.4 6.1 7.1 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.7 10.1 -0.1 47.8 47.9 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.3 5.9 0.2 53.2 52.1 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.8 9.0 8.1 0.0 50.0 50.0 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 8.0 9.2 6.6 0.1 52.0 51.4 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.6 7.2 -0.1 48.6 49.4 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.2 6.6 0.0 50.8 50.6 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.2 6.1 0.1 51.1 50.7 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.8 9.7 8.0 0.0 49.7 49.9 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 8.9 10.0 8.9 0.0 50.2 49.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.5 6.7 0.0 50.2 50.2 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.1 10.0 0.0 49.9 49.0 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.0 7.1 5.9 0.2 53.6 52.6 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.8 10.2 0.0 49.4 49.2 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 4.3 4.0 0.3 56.1 54.0 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.2 9.6 0.1 51.4 50.4 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.4 9.9 0.0 50.8 49.8 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.5 9.9 -0.1 48.4 48.9 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.3 9.2 7.8 0.0 50.3 50.5 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.6 9.1 0.1 52.0 50.4 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.0 5.8 0.0 50.5 50.1 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.4 10.2 9.9 0.1 51.1 49.5 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.0 8.1 0.0 50.9 49.4 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.8 5.4 0.2 54.5 53.0 5.6 6.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.8 10.3 -0.1 48.5 48.5 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------