***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 8.4 8.6 9.1 -0.7 29.8 34.6 8.8 9.4 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.7 -0.8 27.8 32.8 8.4 9.1 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.1 -0.7 28.4 33.7 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.1 6.6 -0.5 34.7 38.7 5.0 5.7 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.0 7.0 -0.6 32.0 36.8 7.1 7.6 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.9 6.2 4.8 -0.3 38.9 41.7 6.1 6.5 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.7 -0.8 27.0 31.8 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 0.7 0.8 4.7 -0.5 33.3 37.6 0.8 1.4 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.7 7.9 7.2 -0.5 33.7 38.1 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.8 7.9 5.5 -0.5 33.7 38.2 7.9 8.4 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 7.4 7.5 6.4 -0.6 31.0 36.0 7.5 8.0 8.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 5.8 6.0 5.5 -0.6 30.5 35.5 6.0 6.5 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.1 7.2 5.3 -0.5 33.9 38.1 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.3 8.4 7.0 -0.5 32.2 36.8 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.5 8.7 7.9 -0.5 34.3 37.9 8.7 9.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.3 5.9 -0.5 32.5 37.2 8.3 8.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 8.6 8.7 8.6 -0.7 29.7 33.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.0 4.9 -0.4 35.4 39.7 6.0 6.5 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.7 -0.8 27.6 32.8 8.5 9.1 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.0 3.0 -0.5 35.7 39.5 2.9 3.3 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.8 8.4 -0.6 32.7 37.1 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.8 7.9 8.5 -0.7 29.4 33.9 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 8.0 8.0 8.6 -0.8 26.9 32.4 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.7 7.9 6.9 -0.5 33.2 37.8 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.1 7.9 -0.7 31.5 36.1 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.9 7.1 4.8 -0.5 35.0 38.6 7.0 7.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 8.2 8.4 8.5 -0.7 30.1 34.8 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.9 7.0 -0.5 35.0 38.7 6.8 7.3 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.2 4.3 -0.4 35.1 39.1 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.9 -0.8 26.8 32.1 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------