***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 16.0 15.5 14.9 -2.5 16.5 20.2 17.2 18.7 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 16.0 15.2 14.9 -2.6 15.7 18.9 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 15.8 14.9 14.6 -2.9 13.9 17.6 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 8.8 8.2 11.5 -2.4 17.4 20.9 9.8 11.3 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 16.0 15.2 12.8 -2.8 14.7 18.9 17.3 18.8 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 14.9 14.2 10.5 -2.7 16.1 20.1 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 15.6 15.0 14.7 -2.6 16.1 19.2 16.8 18.3 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 3.8 3.0 10.6 -2.9 14.7 19.0 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 15.3 14.6 13.8 -2.8 14.6 18.6 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 15.6 14.8 11.7 -2.9 14.4 18.7 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 15.7 14.7 13.0 -3.0 13.9 18.2 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 14.8 13.9 11.6 -3.0 14.1 18.1 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 15.7 14.6 12.4 -3.1 12.8 17.1 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 15.8 15.0 13.4 -2.9 14.2 17.9 17.3 18.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 16.3 15.7 14.3 -2.3 18.2 21.7 17.1 18.4 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 16.2 15.2 12.4 -3.0 13.8 17.9 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 15.4 14.9 14.7 -2.4 18.2 21.5 16.5 18.0 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 15.1 14.3 10.9 -3.0 14.4 18.8 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 15.7 14.8 14.8 -2.8 14.9 18.1 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 10.2 9.4 8.9 -2.9 15.7 20.2 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 15.7 15.0 14.5 -2.7 15.5 19.5 17.0 18.5 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 16.1 15.7 14.9 -2.4 18.4 21.7 17.3 18.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 15.9 15.0 14.6 -2.9 13.5 16.9 17.4 18.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 15.4 14.5 13.2 -3.0 14.0 18.1 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 15.8 15.1 13.6 -2.5 15.9 19.7 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 15.3 14.7 11.1 -2.7 15.6 19.5 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 15.7 15.0 14.2 -2.5 15.9 19.5 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 16.3 15.7 12.6 -2.5 17.1 20.7 17.2 18.6 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 10.2 9.3 10.2 -3.0 15.1 19.6 11.4 13.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 15.6 14.8 14.8 -2.7 15.0 18.2 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------