***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 19.7 20.4 18.0 -1.1 35.9 39.6 20.2 21.4 22.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.7 17.8 -1.3 33.2 37.4 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 19.1 19.8 18.1 -1.2 34.9 38.8 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 11.5 12.8 15.4 -0.7 40.0 42.4 12.1 13.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 19.3 20.4 16.5 -0.8 39.3 41.9 19.8 21.2 22.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 17.4 18.8 14.6 -0.4 44.4 45.4 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 18.9 19.3 17.6 -1.4 32.6 36.8 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.5 7.9 14.8 -0.6 42.2 43.9 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 18.8 19.8 17.1 -0.9 38.9 41.6 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 18.8 19.9 15.7 -0.7 40.8 43.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 18.8 19.9 16.6 -0.9 39.2 41.7 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 17.9 19.1 15.7 -0.8 40.1 42.3 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 18.6 19.8 15.9 -0.9 39.3 41.8 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 18.9 19.7 16.6 -1.1 35.9 40.0 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 19.2 20.0 17.1 -0.9 37.6 40.9 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 19.2 20.3 16.1 -0.8 39.7 42.1 19.7 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 18.7 19.2 17.6 -1.2 35.5 39.3 19.0 20.4 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 18.2 19.4 15.0 -0.7 41.3 43.4 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 18.8 19.3 17.9 -1.3 33.3 37.6 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 13.1 14.6 12.9 -0.4 44.8 45.9 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 19.0 20.0 17.9 -0.9 38.0 41.1 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 19.2 19.8 17.6 -1.1 36.2 40.1 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.5 17.8 -1.4 32.9 37.4 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 18.6 19.5 16.7 -1.0 37.5 40.8 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 19.1 19.8 16.7 -1.0 36.8 40.3 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 17.8 19.0 14.9 -0.7 40.8 42.5 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.7 17.3 -1.1 35.3 39.1 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.0 20.1 16.1 -0.7 39.9 42.4 19.4 21.0 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 13.1 14.4 14.3 -0.6 42.3 44.2 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 18.9 19.4 17.8 -1.4 32.8 37.1 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------