***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 20.0 20.4 18.6 -0.9 32.4 35.4 20.5 21.4 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 19.8 20.1 18.5 -1.0 30.8 34.0 20.3 21.4 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 20.0 20.2 18.6 -1.0 30.1 33.4 20.4 21.4 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.8 -0.9 31.9 35.1 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 20.1 20.4 16.7 -1.0 30.7 34.0 20.5 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 18.6 19.1 14.6 -0.8 34.1 36.5 19.0 19.9 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 19.4 19.8 18.3 -1.0 30.2 33.6 19.9 21.0 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 7.7 8.2 15.0 -0.9 33.1 35.9 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 19.5 19.9 17.3 -0.9 31.5 34.6 20.0 20.9 21.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 19.6 20.0 15.9 -0.9 32.8 35.7 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 19.6 19.9 16.7 -1.0 29.9 33.4 20.1 21.0 21.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 18.9 19.3 16.0 -1.0 30.7 34.1 19.4 20.2 21.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 19.7 20.0 15.8 -1.1 29.9 33.6 20.2 21.1 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 20.0 20.2 17.0 -1.0 30.9 34.4 20.3 21.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 19.9 20.2 17.4 -0.9 31.4 34.6 20.3 21.2 22.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 20.2 20.5 16.2 -1.0 29.9 33.5 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.7 18.4 -0.8 34.3 36.9 19.6 20.6 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 19.1 19.6 15.3 -0.8 34.1 36.7 19.5 20.4 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 19.5 19.8 18.5 -1.0 30.3 33.5 20.0 21.0 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.7 13.0 -0.7 36.8 38.8 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 19.8 20.2 18.2 -0.9 32.3 35.3 20.2 21.2 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.4 18.4 -0.7 35.3 37.9 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 19.8 20.0 18.4 -1.1 28.7 32.2 20.3 21.3 22.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 19.6 19.8 17.0 -1.0 31.2 34.4 19.9 20.8 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 19.8 20.2 17.0 -0.9 31.9 35.2 20.2 21.2 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 19.0 19.5 15.2 -0.9 32.0 35.2 19.5 20.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.8 -0.9 31.8 35.1 20.1 21.0 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 19.9 20.3 16.4 -0.9 31.5 34.7 20.4 21.2 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.6 14.5 -0.8 35.2 37.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 19.5 19.8 18.4 -1.1 29.6 33.0 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------