***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 18.1 19.8 18.4 127.5 72.2 65.5 7.1 11.5 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 8.3 11.4 13.1 104.5 65.4 58.7 3.6 6.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 12.5 18.4 17.1 122.0 70.7 62.6 6.0 10.5 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 16.2 22.0 22.1 122.5 70.4 62.7 9.6 14.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 17.1 21.9 24.3 153.6 78.4 70.7 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 16.9 20.1 25.1 146.5 77.1 70.4 6.1 10.0 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 8.5 10.8 12.7 100.6 64.2 57.9 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 25.9 29.0 26.1 133.4 73.6 68.1 11.6 17.4 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 17.2 21.1 23.0 149.2 77.4 70.4 5.4 9.7 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 19.5 22.9 26.4 138.2 74.8 68.5 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 18.0 22.3 23.9 146.6 76.8 69.2 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 17.5 21.2 24.0 147.0 76.9 70.8 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 20.9 26.5 25.2 160.0 79.9 71.7 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.9 17.3 20.6 109.1 66.7 61.0 6.3 10.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.8 14.8 17.4 115.1 69.0 58.4 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 17.2 21.1 23.4 148.3 77.3 69.8 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 9.7 12.8 11.8 101.0 64.0 56.2 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 19.1 21.9 25.6 131.6 73.1 66.8 6.6 11.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 10.5 14.5 13.9 107.1 66.2 59.5 4.7 8.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 12.0 19.3 25.8 130.2 72.7 66.2 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 13.9 16.5 20.2 137.2 74.6 66.7 6.1 9.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.0 9.4 11.5 94.1 61.6 53.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.3 12.8 15.1 109.5 67.1 60.8 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 19.5 21.2 21.0 123.8 71.1 64.2 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 15.9 20.2 23.0 145.9 76.6 68.4 5.1 9.2 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.5 19.4 22.9 147.1 77.0 71.0 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 17.0 19.4 19.7 130.8 73.1 66.4 5.5 9.8 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 13.7 15.4 21.7 128.7 72.5 64.0 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 17.1 24.6 24.2 124.6 70.9 64.5 9.1 14.7 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 10.0 13.4 14.3 109.7 67.0 60.5 5.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------