***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.0 17.2 101.8 64.2 51.0 4.5 8.0 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 13.6 15.7 107.0 65.9 50.4 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.1 18.0 109.5 66.7 53.4 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.1 20.5 21.1 111.8 66.9 54.4 6.7 12.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.8 20.5 115.4 68.4 56.0 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.5 19.6 23.1 116.5 68.0 54.8 6.0 11.2 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.2 15.3 103.0 64.5 49.7 4.8 8.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 25.4 32.1 20.4 111.1 66.4 55.2 11.4 20.2 31.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.7 16.5 20.5 114.3 68.0 55.8 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 18.0 22.3 112.6 67.0 55.7 6.4 11.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.2 17.8 18.9 118.6 69.2 56.3 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.2 17.4 18.0 112.1 67.0 54.0 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.6 14.5 21.0 113.4 67.2 53.6 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 19.1 23.4 108.6 66.1 53.1 5.8 11.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.3 20.1 116.1 68.7 54.5 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.6 15.0 20.5 117.9 68.8 55.0 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.3 15.7 14.6 102.0 64.2 48.3 4.9 9.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 20.7 24.2 113.1 67.2 55.5 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.5 18.9 16.5 109.3 66.6 51.2 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.8 17.4 21.8 105.9 64.2 55.0 7.6 12.3 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.9 19.1 112.1 67.5 54.5 5.5 9.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.9 14.2 16.5 108.3 66.0 49.7 5.9 9.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.8 17.1 108.5 66.5 51.8 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.6 19.8 22.2 112.3 67.1 54.1 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.4 15.1 19.5 101.5 63.3 51.5 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.2 13.4 18.6 110.8 66.5 52.7 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.2 14.7 18.4 100.4 63.2 50.5 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.8 15.0 22.0 119.3 69.4 55.4 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 21.8 23.9 111.3 66.3 55.1 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.4 13.4 16.3 106.3 65.5 51.2 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------