***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.0 16.5 97.7 62.2 48.1 4.0 7.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.0 15.3 97.1 62.8 48.4 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.7 15.8 97.9 62.5 48.7 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.5 19.7 105.0 64.5 50.0 5.5 10.4 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.7 17.6 95.8 60.9 49.0 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.5 21.3 100.3 61.3 49.6 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.4 15.0 95.8 62.1 47.5 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.3 17.7 18.9 88.8 57.3 49.1 9.1 14.9 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.9 17.8 92.5 59.7 48.4 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.1 20.1 89.9 57.7 48.5 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.5 16.1 93.3 59.6 49.4 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.5 16.8 94.2 60.3 50.5 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.0 20.0 100.7 62.6 51.4 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.2 22.5 97.6 61.9 49.9 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.6 19.0 113.0 67.8 49.9 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.7 18.5 99.8 62.4 50.5 4.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.3 13.4 88.6 59.4 46.9 4.1 8.2 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.7 14.6 22.3 92.8 59.2 50.1 6.2 11.1 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.2 16.1 100.1 63.8 49.0 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.9 21.3 89.2 57.0 49.6 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.4 16.5 97.3 62.0 48.7 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.2 13.4 15.2 92.1 61.0 47.8 4.6 9.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.5 16.9 102.2 64.4 49.5 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.6 20.1 96.0 61.2 50.1 5.0 9.4 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.4 13.0 19.5 102.3 63.3 48.6 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.1 17.3 97.0 61.2 50.7 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.6 18.2 97.9 62.1 48.3 4.0 7.7 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.4 20.0 107.8 65.6 50.6 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.1 22.4 93.2 59.3 50.6 6.8 12.7 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.2 15.8 98.8 63.4 48.4 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------