***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 46.3 49.2 67.9 107.6 62.4 55.8 32.6 41.8 51.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 39.3 40.2 57.4 101.7 58.6 53.2 23.3 33.9 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 46.8 51.7 66.5 108.3 62.9 57.0 30.5 41.7 54.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 65.4 69.6 80.1 108.6 63.1 56.2 47.4 59.4 72.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 49.1 56.0 78.2 112.8 65.8 59.0 33.1 43.9 56.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 54.2 61.1 87.6 110.9 65.1 58.0 35.4 47.9 62.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 40.0 39.8 56.4 100.4 57.6 52.2 24.1 34.4 46.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 88.1 92.0 82.0 105.4 60.5 55.3 68.3 82.5 97.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 48.2 54.0 78.0 110.5 64.4 58.2 33.4 43.8 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 56.5 61.5 86.5 107.7 62.3 56.8 39.7 51.7 64.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 47.5 53.1 75.1 111.2 64.8 58.2 33.2 43.1 54.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 51.7 56.0 73.8 110.0 64.0 57.5 39.4 48.0 57.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 49.4 54.9 82.5 112.1 65.7 57.7 35.7 44.9 55.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 57.9 58.8 85.1 102.7 58.5 53.5 37.7 51.2 66.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 26.7 46.4 72.3 109.6 63.7 55.5 27.2 37.0 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 46.9 51.7 78.4 111.9 65.4 57.8 33.4 42.4 52.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 48.3 44.2 52.8 95.8 54.1 49.4 27.9 40.7 56.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 63.1 66.7 90.2 106.0 61.0 55.6 43.8 56.9 71.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 50.7 53.2 60.1 103.7 59.9 54.3 33.7 45.3 58.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 57.3 55.6 85.5 99.9 55.3 51.3 40.3 51.8 64.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 42.9 47.6 72.4 110.7 64.5 58.1 30.6 39.1 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 45.8 42.5 56.0 95.9 53.8 49.2 28.4 39.6 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 44.6 47.6 63.7 104.8 60.6 54.6 28.8 39.7 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 58.3 62.2 81.4 106.7 61.6 56.1 37.7 51.4 67.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 50.5 55.2 79.4 109.8 63.9 56.8 35.4 45.5 56.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 46.2 50.1 74.9 109.2 63.5 57.0 30.8 40.8 52.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 48.7 51.7 72.9 106.6 61.7 54.8 32.9 43.5 55.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 43.5 48.2 79.3 111.2 64.8 57.2 28.7 38.3 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 77.0 77.9 88.6 103.3 58.5 53.2 53.2 69.0 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 41.1 43.8 60.2 104.2 60.2 54.3 24.1 35.5 49.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------