***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 10.0 9.2 9.5 -0.4 42.7 43.8 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 9.3 8.7 9.6 -0.2 46.1 47.0 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.3 9.2 -0.4 42.6 43.8 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.6 7.0 -0.5 39.9 41.7 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.9 7.0 -0.5 40.6 42.1 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.0 5.5 0.0 49.8 49.3 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 9.3 8.7 9.6 -0.2 46.4 47.3 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.7 5.4 -0.3 44.2 45.3 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.6 7.4 -0.4 41.3 42.6 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.7 6.0 -0.4 42.2 43.6 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.3 6.6 -0.3 43.0 44.3 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.7 6.2 -0.2 44.8 45.8 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.9 5.8 -0.2 46.5 46.9 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.2 7.5 -0.4 41.2 42.7 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.1 8.4 7.6 -0.4 42.2 43.7 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.4 6.4 -0.2 45.1 45.9 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.1 9.4 -0.2 45.8 46.9 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.5 5.4 -0.3 42.8 44.1 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 9.3 8.6 9.4 -0.3 45.0 46.0 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.4 2.9 4.0 -0.1 47.9 48.4 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.5 7.5 8.5 -0.5 40.8 42.1 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.3 9.3 -0.2 45.9 46.9 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.9 8.2 8.9 -0.4 42.7 44.1 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.6 7.2 -0.4 41.3 42.8 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.0 7.7 -0.6 39.3 40.9 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.9 6.1 -0.1 47.9 47.8 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.8 8.6 8.7 -0.4 42.0 43.3 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.5 7.3 -0.3 43.0 44.4 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 4.9 -0.3 44.7 45.7 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 9.5 8.8 9.6 -0.2 45.6 46.5 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------