***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.5 10.5 -0.5 42.8 44.7 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.6 10.4 -0.4 43.2 44.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.2 10.2 -0.5 42.7 44.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.0 8.1 -0.5 41.7 43.6 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.7 8.0 -0.5 42.1 44.2 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.9 6.5 -0.3 44.8 46.4 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.9 9.7 10.5 -0.4 43.9 45.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.6 1.9 6.4 -0.4 43.7 45.8 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.7 8.4 -0.4 43.3 45.3 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.8 6.9 -0.4 43.4 45.5 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.4 7.5 -0.4 42.3 44.5 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.0 7.2 -0.4 43.3 45.4 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.9 6.7 -0.4 42.7 44.9 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.4 8.4 -0.6 40.0 42.1 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.8 8.8 -0.3 44.1 45.4 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.1 7.3 -0.4 42.6 44.6 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.4 9.9 10.1 -0.5 41.8 43.7 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.0 6.3 -0.4 43.1 45.2 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.6 10.2 -0.5 42.5 44.2 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.8 4.6 -0.4 44.1 45.9 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.7 9.5 -0.5 42.6 44.6 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.1 10.0 -0.6 40.4 42.5 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.3 9.8 -0.5 41.5 43.4 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.0 8.2 -0.5 41.8 43.9 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.0 8.8 -0.6 40.9 43.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.7 7.0 -0.4 42.2 44.3 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.5 9.7 -0.5 42.2 44.4 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.6 8.5 -0.4 43.3 44.7 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.2 5.7 -0.4 43.3 45.4 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.7 10.5 -0.4 43.6 45.2 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------