***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 8.6 8.5 9.2 -1.0 23.6 26.9 8.9 9.5 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 8.3 8.4 9.4 -0.7 29.5 32.1 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.0 -1.0 24.1 27.3 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 4.7 4.5 6.7 -1.2 18.0 21.7 5.3 6.0 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 6.8 6.7 6.8 -1.1 19.3 22.8 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 6.0 5.9 5.1 -0.9 23.9 27.7 6.2 6.7 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.4 -0.7 30.0 32.6 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 0.6 0.5 5.0 -1.1 20.1 23.6 1.0 1.6 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 7.6 7.6 7.2 -1.1 20.8 24.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 7.7 7.6 5.6 -1.1 19.5 23.1 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 7.4 7.3 6.2 -1.1 18.8 22.5 7.7 8.2 8.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 5.9 5.8 5.7 -1.1 18.9 22.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 7.1 7.1 5.4 -1.0 21.3 25.2 7.4 7.8 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 8.2 8.1 7.3 -1.0 20.5 23.6 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 8.6 8.6 7.7 -0.9 24.6 28.0 8.9 9.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 8.2 8.0 6.0 -1.1 20.5 24.3 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.2 -0.7 29.5 32.1 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 5.8 5.7 5.0 -1.0 21.1 24.2 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.2 -0.8 27.5 30.3 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.8 3.4 -0.9 25.8 28.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 7.6 7.6 8.4 -1.1 21.7 25.1 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 8.0 8.0 9.1 -0.8 28.3 30.9 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 8.0 8.0 8.8 -0.9 23.9 27.2 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 7.7 7.6 7.0 -1.0 21.2 24.4 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 7.9 7.7 7.6 -1.2 19.2 22.9 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 6.9 6.9 5.6 -0.9 22.2 26.3 7.2 7.6 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.4 -1.1 22.3 25.8 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 6.7 6.7 7.2 -1.0 22.2 25.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 4.9 4.9 4.5 -0.9 23.0 25.9 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.5 -0.8 28.5 31.3 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------