***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 16.2 15.7 16.0 -2.7 13.5 15.8 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 16.7 16.4 16.5 -2.2 20.0 22.3 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 16.4 15.9 16.2 -2.6 15.7 18.0 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 8.7 7.5 13.6 -2.9 9.8 12.6 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 16.3 15.2 14.3 -3.0 10.5 13.2 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 15.0 13.3 11.7 -3.4 7.3 10.2 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 15.9 15.6 16.1 -2.5 16.6 19.0 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 4.1 3.3 12.6 -2.8 12.6 15.5 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 15.8 15.0 15.3 -2.9 12.4 15.0 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 16.0 15.3 13.6 -2.9 12.7 15.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 16.0 14.9 14.1 -3.0 10.6 13.5 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 15.1 14.2 13.3 -2.9 11.3 14.2 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 16.0 14.3 13.0 -3.3 7.6 10.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 16.5 16.3 15.4 -2.4 19.0 21.1 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 16.2 15.1 15.2 -2.7 10.6 13.9 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 16.5 15.0 13.6 -3.2 8.6 11.4 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 16.1 15.9 16.3 -2.1 21.1 23.6 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 15.6 15.0 13.0 -2.8 14.4 17.0 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 16.5 16.2 16.5 -2.2 20.4 22.6 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 10.5 9.8 10.7 -2.8 13.6 16.6 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 16.1 15.4 15.9 -2.9 13.0 15.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 17.0 16.9 16.5 -1.9 23.7 26.1 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 16.6 16.4 16.4 -2.3 19.6 21.7 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 15.9 15.5 14.9 -2.7 15.7 17.9 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 16.1 15.1 14.6 -3.1 10.4 12.8 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 15.5 13.8 12.2 -3.2 7.1 9.9 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 15.9 15.1 15.2 -3.0 11.5 13.8 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 16.3 15.2 14.3 -2.9 10.1 13.2 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 10.5 10.0 12.2 -2.7 15.2 17.8 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 16.3 15.8 16.4 -2.3 18.0 20.3 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------