***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.8 21.9 20.8 -0.3 46.8 47.2 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.8 20.7 -0.3 46.7 47.2 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 22.8 21.9 20.8 -0.3 46.1 46.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.8 19.2 -0.2 48.2 48.6 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.0 19.3 -0.3 47.1 48.0 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.6 17.7 0.0 49.5 50.2 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.5 20.6 -0.3 46.8 47.2 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.5 17.8 -0.3 46.8 48.1 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.3 19.6 -0.3 46.2 47.3 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.3 18.5 -0.3 46.4 47.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.7 18.8 -0.2 47.5 48.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.6 18.6 -0.3 47.1 48.5 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.5 18.2 -0.2 47.6 48.8 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.5 19.2 -0.6 43.6 45.0 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.0 19.6 0.0 49.7 49.6 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.1 18.7 -0.2 48.1 49.1 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.0 20.3 -0.4 45.8 46.5 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.6 20.7 17.8 -0.4 45.4 46.9 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.4 20.7 -0.3 46.4 47.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.7 15.8 15.6 -0.4 45.5 46.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.5 21.6 20.3 -0.3 46.2 47.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.5 20.2 -0.4 44.7 45.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.6 20.5 -0.4 45.3 46.3 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.2 19.2 -0.5 44.7 46.1 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.7 19.3 -0.3 46.9 47.3 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.9 18.0 -0.2 47.9 49.1 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.6 20.0 -0.3 46.8 47.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.9 19.4 -0.1 49.1 49.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.6 16.8 -0.5 45.0 46.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.6 20.8 -0.3 46.9 47.3 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------