***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.5 20.8 19.8 -0.7 34.7 36.3 20.7 21.7 22.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.0 20.0 -0.5 39.7 40.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.1 20.9 19.9 -0.6 36.0 37.6 20.7 21.7 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.4 17.9 -0.8 33.4 35.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 20.6 20.8 18.2 -0.8 33.0 35.2 20.8 21.8 22.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 19.1 19.3 16.2 -0.8 32.9 35.4 19.3 20.2 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.5 19.8 -0.6 37.0 38.3 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.5 16.7 -0.7 34.6 36.8 8.4 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.3 18.8 -0.8 33.5 35.7 20.3 21.2 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.3 17.5 -0.8 33.9 36.2 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.8 -0.8 33.2 35.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.7 17.4 -0.8 34.0 36.2 19.7 20.5 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 20.2 20.4 17.0 -0.9 31.7 34.4 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.8 18.6 -0.7 36.0 37.8 20.6 21.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 20.4 20.7 18.5 -0.7 35.1 37.1 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.0 17.5 -0.8 32.5 34.9 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.7 20.2 19.7 -0.5 38.9 40.0 19.8 20.9 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.7 19.9 16.9 -0.7 34.7 36.8 19.8 20.7 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 21.6 20.7 20.1 -0.4 40.0 41.0 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 14.5 14.9 14.7 -0.7 35.3 37.2 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.6 19.4 -0.8 33.5 35.5 20.5 21.5 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.9 19.8 -0.4 40.1 41.2 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 22.0 20.9 19.9 -0.5 38.4 39.8 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.3 18.5 -0.7 34.7 36.7 20.2 21.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 20.3 20.5 18.3 -0.8 31.8 33.8 20.5 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 19.4 19.8 16.7 -0.8 32.7 35.3 19.8 20.6 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 20.2 20.4 19.1 -0.8 32.7 34.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 20.4 20.7 18.2 -0.7 34.4 36.5 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 14.5 14.9 15.9 -0.7 35.4 37.4 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.8 20.7 20.1 -0.5 38.5 39.7 20.4 21.4 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------