***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.7 6.3 50.6 38.1 33.9 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.2 3.6 4.9 40.0 32.3 29.5 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.3 6.5 6.6 52.7 39.9 35.9 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.6 10.4 8.7 61.8 42.8 37.3 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.7 8.0 9.7 70.3 48.5 42.5 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.1 7.0 11.1 68.3 42.9 39.3 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.1 4.5 5.5 44.3 34.8 31.9 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.8 12.9 10.7 68.9 43.8 40.1 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 9.4 8.2 10.6 76.0 52.3 46.9 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.6 9.5 11.4 71.8 47.9 43.4 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.6 8.8 68.2 46.3 40.6 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 6.4 8.7 66.7 42.8 39.0 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.2 7.4 9.4 65.6 41.7 38.2 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 6.7 8.7 58.7 41.5 37.4 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.5 3.9 6.0 44.9 31.4 28.1 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.9 6.6 8.9 66.5 43.6 39.3 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.9 38.7 30.3 27.7 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.8 10.7 12.4 70.3 46.0 42.2 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.4 3.8 5.0 39.8 31.6 28.7 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 7.7 13.2 69.5 42.3 39.2 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.2 7.2 8.7 66.7 48.0 42.6 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.4 3.7 4.7 36.5 29.0 26.4 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.4 3.9 5.7 43.7 33.1 29.9 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.2 7.3 9.8 62.9 44.0 40.0 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.4 8.7 56.3 39.4 35.1 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 5.1 9.2 65.2 41.2 38.2 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.1 7.8 53.3 38.2 34.4 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.3 7.9 58.7 40.0 35.5 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.5 12.6 12.9 70.3 44.5 40.8 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.9 5.2 43.0 34.5 31.4 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------