***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.6 9.8 67.3 49.2 42.0 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.6 11.0 77.8 54.5 44.4 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.9 9.7 68.0 47.9 41.0 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 7.2 12.1 63.8 45.1 39.7 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.6 11.0 62.0 45.2 39.7 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.4 15.9 68.9 45.0 39.4 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.9 11.5 81.2 55.3 45.4 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.6 11.2 12.6 70.3 49.6 44.2 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.8 4.7 10.2 61.2 46.2 40.2 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 5.5 12.0 65.2 46.7 41.3 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.3 4.1 10.3 65.9 47.7 42.1 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.6 6.9 10.6 70.0 50.7 44.8 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.8 12.8 68.0 46.0 40.6 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.1 12.9 70.8 48.2 41.3 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.6 11.9 65.2 47.1 40.2 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.7 5.0 11.6 66.1 46.3 41.0 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.9 11.8 86.2 57.6 45.1 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 6.2 13.5 66.2 45.3 40.9 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.6 10.4 74.1 52.4 43.1 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.3 16.9 74.7 49.6 44.6 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.0 9.0 60.6 45.3 39.1 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.3 12.0 85.6 57.5 45.9 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.2 10.3 70.4 49.4 41.2 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.2 5.6 11.7 66.5 46.2 40.7 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.0 13.1 69.4 49.5 42.7 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.9 10.6 64.5 44.3 39.4 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.4 12.8 73.8 52.0 44.1 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.5 11.4 62.4 44.7 39.0 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 8.8 14.6 69.8 47.5 42.2 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.4 10.6 74.6 52.9 44.0 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------