***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.7 12.4 13.7 98.2 62.0 51.0 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.6 14.8 101.4 62.8 51.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.7 13.5 96.6 60.8 50.0 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.3 21.1 18.3 107.8 65.1 53.1 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.6 17.5 108.0 64.9 51.8 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.2 18.3 24.2 106.1 63.4 51.6 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.0 13.3 14.9 100.5 62.8 52.2 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.9 24.7 18.6 92.3 57.4 47.6 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.4 16.4 105.0 63.7 51.3 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.2 18.5 93.2 57.5 47.9 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.6 16.3 102.4 62.6 48.9 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.8 15.8 15.8 99.3 61.4 48.4 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.8 19.5 106.1 64.0 50.6 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.8 14.9 16.0 88.2 56.3 46.5 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.0 16.8 104.8 64.7 53.7 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.1 14.1 18.2 106.3 64.3 50.7 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.6 16.3 14.7 99.5 62.4 50.2 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 13.8 19.3 85.7 53.7 46.1 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 17.9 14.0 100.6 62.2 50.2 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.3 23.0 90.6 56.8 49.1 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.3 14.2 105.3 64.4 51.8 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.8 14.8 14.7 106.9 64.6 50.3 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.3 15.8 13.2 97.9 60.7 48.5 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.8 13.3 15.7 86.4 54.9 45.9 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.1 15.7 17.7 99.4 61.9 52.3 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.3 16.7 99.8 61.8 49.4 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.8 16.9 98.4 61.6 51.6 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.9 18.0 106.7 65.0 52.6 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 16.2 20.0 86.5 54.6 46.6 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.8 14.6 101.0 62.7 51.7 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------