***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.4 12.8 96.3 62.8 47.9 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.5 11.7 92.6 61.0 49.1 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.7 12.8 99.5 63.6 47.9 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.0 17.0 100.4 63.7 45.4 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.8 13.2 16.6 102.4 64.3 44.9 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.8 9.1 18.5 87.2 55.9 42.7 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.4 11.3 86.4 58.1 47.3 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.6 19.6 17.2 92.2 59.2 44.9 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.2 11.7 15.9 102.2 64.3 44.2 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.1 14.1 17.9 95.2 60.6 44.8 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.6 10.1 14.6 95.7 61.6 44.0 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.9 13.4 90.2 59.1 43.6 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.0 6.8 14.6 84.8 55.6 41.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.7 13.3 15.7 90.8 58.7 45.6 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.0 14.6 92.3 61.4 44.0 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.5 14.8 91.3 59.4 43.3 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.2 10.2 82.0 57.1 46.7 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.8 15.9 19.5 93.0 59.0 46.3 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 12.2 11.9 95.0 62.2 49.0 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 14.8 20.8 91.2 57.8 46.6 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.5 14.0 105.9 66.2 45.8 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.4 10.9 88.3 59.8 48.5 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.5 12.3 93.2 61.5 46.8 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 13.8 15.9 92.5 59.3 45.9 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.4 16.0 96.0 62.0 47.1 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.7 12.5 85.9 56.5 43.0 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.7 14.5 90.1 59.6 47.0 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.1 16.1 96.0 62.7 44.5 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 17.8 19.8 94.5 59.3 47.1 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.4 12.2 95.0 61.6 48.8 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------