***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 31.1 36.0 42.6 78.6 39.4 38.2 32.6 41.8 52.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.2 27.5 42.4 79.1 40.6 39.4 22.9 33.7 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 31.1 35.5 42.6 79.5 39.7 38.5 31.4 42.5 55.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 44.3 53.0 56.1 83.8 43.1 39.9 45.5 58.2 72.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 31.9 40.2 54.7 85.7 44.3 41.1 33.3 43.9 55.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 31.8 38.0 69.7 83.6 38.9 38.6 33.8 46.3 60.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 40.8 28.5 43.1 79.3 40.5 39.3 23.9 34.6 47.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 62.9 68.9 59.1 81.8 37.4 37.3 65.0 80.4 96.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 31.6 40.4 53.1 85.9 44.2 41.3 34.0 43.7 54.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 36.3 41.6 59.8 81.9 37.4 37.4 38.6 50.5 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 30.8 37.5 50.0 83.7 42.2 39.4 32.4 41.9 52.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 37.1 41.9 48.5 82.2 40.6 38.4 37.8 47.0 57.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 31.3 35.9 56.4 81.9 38.2 37.2 33.2 42.5 53.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 37.9 42.6 53.3 77.7 35.4 35.4 40.8 54.3 69.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 24.2 28.9 49.3 77.6 38.2 36.0 26.0 36.2 47.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 33.8 39.0 53.5 83.3 41.3 38.4 34.7 43.6 53.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.2 31.8 41.6 77.7 39.5 38.3 27.1 40.1 55.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 40.9 44.0 64.8 79.4 33.4 35.2 43.7 57.4 72.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 33.1 37.7 41.4 77.9 39.5 38.5 33.4 45.3 58.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 38.0 41.4 73.9 82.3 35.7 37.0 39.5 51.5 64.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 28.2 35.5 45.9 84.1 44.0 41.0 30.2 38.6 47.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.8 33.6 42.3 79.6 40.7 39.6 28.6 40.1 53.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 27.9 32.5 41.5 76.3 37.5 36.7 29.7 40.7 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 34.8 38.2 53.1 77.5 34.2 35.0 37.2 50.9 66.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 34.6 39.4 55.6 80.6 39.8 38.3 35.4 45.9 57.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.9 31.8 49.0 79.2 35.3 35.3 30.3 41.0 52.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 31.2 36.2 51.9 79.7 39.1 38.0 32.5 43.2 55.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 25.9 31.8 53.5 81.7 41.4 38.0 27.0 37.2 48.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 50.1 54.0 67.3 80.7 34.6 36.0 52.3 68.4 85.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.6 27.8 42.6 79.4 40.3 39.3 23.1 34.8 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------