***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 5.4 4.7 5.3 -2.7 12.2 15.4 6.3 7.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 4.5 3.7 5.1 -2.7 12.1 14.8 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 6.6 6.0 5.7 -2.5 13.8 16.6 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.9 -2.3 16.5 19.8 2.6 3.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 3.5 3.0 3.9 -2.3 15.9 19.4 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 3.3 3.3 1.7 -1.6 23.6 26.7 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 4.8 4.2 5.0 -2.7 11.8 14.4 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 1.7 -1.7 23.6 26.6 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 4.5 4.1 4.2 -2.1 16.6 20.1 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.9 4.6 2.6 -1.9 20.9 24.1 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 4.5 4.3 3.9 -1.9 20.5 23.5 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.2 2.8 -1.8 22.1 25.4 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 4.4 4.4 3.1 -1.6 24.5 27.8 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 5.2 4.9 3.9 -2.1 18.0 21.3 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 5.6 5.5 5.0 -1.8 20.0 23.0 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 5.1 4.9 3.4 -1.8 20.9 24.2 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 4.9 4.2 4.7 -2.8 11.2 13.5 6.1 7.3 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.0 2.0 -1.9 21.8 24.8 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 4.7 4.0 5.2 -2.6 13.3 16.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.7 25.3 28.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 4.2 3.6 5.1 -2.4 14.3 17.2 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 4.2 3.6 5.2 -2.6 13.1 15.6 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 4.7 4.2 5.3 -2.3 15.0 18.1 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 4.5 4.3 4.0 -2.1 18.1 21.1 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 4.3 3.3 4.4 -2.8 11.1 14.9 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 4.4 4.5 2.3 -1.4 26.6 30.1 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 4.1 3.0 4.8 -2.9 10.9 14.4 5.6 7.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.8 -2.1 19.0 21.9 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.2 2.3 1.5 -1.6 26.1 28.7 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 4.9 4.1 5.4 -2.6 13.1 15.9 6.0 7.2 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------