***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 8.3 8.5 8.4 -1.3 30.9 37.6 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 7.1 7.2 7.9 -1.5 27.8 35.3 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 9.1 9.4 8.5 -1.2 30.7 37.6 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.6 3.9 5.7 -1.2 30.9 37.8 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.9 6.2 6.4 -1.1 31.1 38.3 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.0 4.0 -1.1 32.0 39.2 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 7.3 7.3 7.9 -1.5 27.7 35.1 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.3 -0.5 3.8 -1.3 27.3 36.5 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.9 6.5 -1.1 31.0 38.3 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.9 6.9 4.7 -1.2 29.0 37.4 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.4 6.5 5.8 -1.1 29.7 37.8 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.8 4.8 4.8 -1.2 28.8 37.7 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.8 -1.1 30.9 39.0 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.3 7.6 6.3 -1.0 31.1 39.2 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 7.6 7.9 7.2 -1.0 32.2 38.6 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.5 5.4 -1.1 31.1 38.8 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 7.7 7.8 7.5 -1.6 26.1 34.0 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.6 4.7 4.1 -1.2 29.5 37.6 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 7.3 7.5 8.0 -1.4 28.7 36.1 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.8 1.8 2.2 -1.3 28.9 38.0 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.6 6.8 7.7 -1.2 30.8 37.9 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.7 -1.4 27.5 35.3 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 7.0 7.3 7.9 -1.2 29.5 37.0 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.8 7.0 6.2 -1.1 31.1 38.6 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.1 7.3 7.3 -1.4 30.1 37.0 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.2 -1.1 30.8 38.7 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 7.2 7.5 7.8 -1.4 30.4 37.3 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.9 6.2 -1.1 31.6 38.5 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.0 3.3 -1.3 27.9 37.0 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 7.3 7.5 8.2 -1.4 29.1 36.2 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------