***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.4 11.1 0.6 59.1 57.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.6 11.0 0.7 61.1 59.5 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.3 11.2 0.7 61.8 60.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.9 8.2 0.4 56.3 55.6 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.8 8.4 0.4 57.5 56.5 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.6 6.2 0.4 56.4 56.0 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.5 10.9 0.7 60.3 58.9 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.7 6.2 0.5 58.3 57.4 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.6 8.7 0.6 60.0 58.5 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.4 9.7 7.1 0.6 60.3 58.8 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.2 7.7 0.4 57.5 56.6 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.6 7.0 0.4 57.6 56.8 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.6 6.4 0.3 56.2 55.6 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.4 8.8 0.8 64.3 61.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.4 9.3 0.3 55.0 54.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.9 9.9 7.1 0.4 56.7 56.0 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.8 10.8 0.7 61.7 59.8 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 8.1 7.9 6.5 0.7 63.6 61.3 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 11.0 0.7 61.9 60.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.3 4.6 4.3 0.6 59.8 58.4 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.7 10.1 0.6 59.4 58.1 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.2 10.7 0.9 64.6 61.7 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.3 10.8 0.8 63.0 60.7 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 10.1 10.0 8.6 0.8 65.1 62.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.0 9.5 0.4 57.0 56.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.3 6.0 0.3 54.7 54.3 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.8 10.4 0.6 58.6 57.5 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.4 8.5 0.4 57.0 56.2 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.3 5.9 0.7 62.1 60.2 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.7 11.1 0.7 60.9 59.3 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------