***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.8 8.7 9.2 -0.8 28.6 33.7 8.9 9.5 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.9 -0.8 28.7 33.7 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.3 9.3 -0.7 30.4 35.3 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.1 5.0 6.5 -0.8 28.0 32.7 5.3 6.0 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.0 7.0 -0.8 28.3 33.5 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.1 6.2 4.8 -0.6 32.9 37.3 6.2 6.7 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.9 -0.8 28.4 33.3 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.0 0.9 4.7 -0.7 30.4 35.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.2 -0.7 30.2 35.0 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.0 5.6 -0.6 30.9 35.7 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.7 7.7 6.5 -0.7 30.2 35.0 7.7 8.2 8.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.1 5.6 -0.7 30.3 35.2 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.4 5.4 -0.6 32.6 36.7 7.4 7.8 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.6 7.1 -0.6 32.4 37.5 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.0 -0.6 31.6 35.5 8.9 9.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.4 6.0 -0.6 31.0 35.7 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.8 8.8 8.7 -0.9 27.9 32.8 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.1 5.0 -0.6 32.7 37.2 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.0 -0.8 29.9 35.0 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.0 3.0 -0.6 32.2 36.4 3.0 3.5 3.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.9 7.9 8.5 -0.7 29.0 33.7 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.8 -0.7 30.9 35.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.3 8.9 -0.7 31.4 36.5 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.1 7.0 -0.6 33.0 37.6 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.0 7.9 -1.0 25.6 30.7 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 7.1 7.2 4.9 -0.6 32.7 36.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.5 8.6 -0.9 27.1 32.2 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.9 6.9 7.0 -0.7 30.7 34.9 7.0 7.4 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.4 4.3 -0.6 33.1 37.4 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.2 -0.8 29.7 34.7 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------