***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 17.1 17.1 15.8 -1.9 25.4 28.9 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 16.7 16.6 15.6 -2.4 21.7 24.9 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 16.9 16.8 15.7 -2.2 23.4 27.0 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 9.3 8.8 11.7 -2.7 18.2 22.1 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 17.0 16.5 13.3 -2.7 18.7 22.7 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 15.3 14.5 10.5 -3.1 14.1 19.3 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 16.3 16.2 15.4 -2.4 21.0 24.1 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 4.7 3.9 11.0 -3.0 16.7 21.8 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 16.4 16.1 14.5 -2.4 20.6 24.7 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 16.6 16.1 12.3 -2.8 18.8 23.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 16.6 15.9 13.5 -2.9 17.0 21.5 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 15.8 15.1 12.1 -2.9 16.9 21.9 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 16.5 16.0 13.1 -2.8 17.1 21.7 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 16.9 16.9 14.6 -2.3 23.8 27.6 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 16.6 16.2 14.6 -2.5 18.8 22.7 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 17.0 16.4 12.9 -2.9 16.5 21.0 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 16.0 15.9 15.1 -2.4 21.7 24.7 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 16.2 15.5 11.4 -2.9 18.1 22.8 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 16.6 16.5 15.7 -2.3 22.5 25.8 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 11.2 10.5 9.3 -2.9 18.0 23.3 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 16.8 16.4 15.2 -2.5 20.7 24.5 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 16.9 16.9 15.4 -2.2 23.8 27.0 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 17.0 17.0 15.7 -2.2 23.8 27.3 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 16.5 16.3 14.1 -2.5 21.4 25.4 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 16.8 16.5 14.1 -2.4 20.5 24.2 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 16.1 15.5 11.3 -2.7 17.2 22.4 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 16.8 16.6 15.0 -2.1 23.4 26.9 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 16.7 16.2 12.8 -2.8 17.3 21.5 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 11.1 10.5 10.8 -2.9 18.5 23.3 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 16.6 16.4 15.7 -2.2 22.6 26.0 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------