***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.0 18.4 -0.9 39.2 42.7 20.5 21.7 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 19.6 20.4 18.3 -1.0 38.1 42.2 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.4 18.6 -1.0 38.3 42.2 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.0 12.4 15.1 -1.5 33.3 37.4 12.4 14.0 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 19.7 20.0 16.3 -1.5 33.2 37.5 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 17.6 17.8 13.8 -1.8 30.7 35.1 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 19.2 20.0 18.2 -1.1 37.6 41.5 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.8 6.9 14.2 -1.9 29.9 35.0 7.2 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.2 19.7 17.1 -1.3 35.0 39.1 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 19.1 19.4 15.3 -1.6 32.7 37.2 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 19.2 19.4 16.4 -1.7 32.0 36.6 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 18.2 18.3 15.3 -1.8 30.7 35.6 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 19.0 19.1 15.5 -1.8 30.7 35.4 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 19.4 20.1 17.1 -1.1 37.5 42.0 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.4 19.9 17.1 -1.4 34.4 38.1 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 19.5 19.7 15.8 -1.8 31.4 36.0 19.9 21.4 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 18.9 19.6 17.9 -1.0 37.8 41.7 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 18.5 18.8 14.6 -1.7 32.2 36.9 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.0 18.4 -1.0 38.3 42.4 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.2 12.0 -2.0 28.9 33.9 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 19.6 20.0 17.9 -1.3 35.1 39.2 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 19.4 20.2 18.0 -0.9 38.9 42.7 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 21.9 20.3 18.5 -1.0 38.7 42.8 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.6 16.9 -1.3 36.1 40.5 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.4 20.0 16.7 -1.3 34.9 39.1 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 17.9 18.1 14.3 -2.0 29.3 33.7 18.5 20.0 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 19.5 20.2 17.7 -1.0 37.7 41.5 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.3 19.7 15.9 -1.5 33.1 37.1 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.3 13.5 13.7 -1.8 30.8 35.8 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 19.5 20.2 18.4 -1.0 38.8 42.6 19.7 21.1 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------