***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 23.7 23.4 21.5 1.3 64.5 61.2 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.6 23.1 21.4 1.2 63.2 60.3 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.4 21.8 1.3 64.4 61.0 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.7 18.8 0.9 60.2 58.1 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.0 19.3 0.8 59.3 57.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 21.1 21.2 16.8 0.6 57.3 55.5 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.8 21.4 1.2 63.0 60.2 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.4 17.6 0.7 57.3 55.6 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.5 19.7 1.0 60.8 58.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 22.0 22.3 18.5 0.9 59.6 57.5 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.6 19.1 0.8 58.5 56.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 21.3 21.4 18.7 0.7 57.4 55.6 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.3 17.7 0.7 56.9 55.3 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.4 23.0 19.9 1.3 63.9 60.7 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.5 23.0 19.8 1.0 61.7 59.2 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.0 18.6 0.8 58.4 56.6 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.8 22.4 21.3 1.3 63.6 60.6 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.5 21.8 18.1 1.0 60.5 58.1 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.7 21.6 1.3 63.6 60.6 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.8 15.1 0.7 57.3 55.5 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.8 20.7 1.1 61.9 59.2 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.4 23.2 21.3 1.4 65.3 61.8 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.1 21.6 1.3 64.3 61.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.0 22.6 19.8 1.3 63.3 60.2 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.9 19.5 1.1 62.4 59.7 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.4 17.6 0.5 55.2 53.7 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.9 20.6 1.3 64.3 61.1 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.8 19.1 0.9 60.3 58.1 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.7 17.0 0.9 59.0 57.0 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.9 21.5 1.3 63.8 60.7 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------