***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.5 21.4 19.4 -0.2 45.1 46.7 20.7 21.7 22.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.1 19.3 -0.4 42.0 44.2 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.3 19.5 -0.3 43.6 45.4 20.7 21.7 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.2 13.5 16.2 -0.7 35.3 38.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 20.6 20.9 17.2 -0.8 34.6 37.8 20.8 21.8 22.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 18.9 19.1 14.6 -1.1 29.0 33.3 19.3 20.2 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.0 20.7 19.1 -0.5 41.4 43.6 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.0 8.3 15.2 -1.1 30.5 34.3 8.4 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.1 20.5 17.9 -0.6 37.7 40.4 20.3 21.2 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.3 16.2 -0.8 34.5 37.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.1 -0.9 32.5 35.9 20.4 21.3 22.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 19.3 19.6 16.3 -1.0 31.3 34.9 19.7 20.5 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 20.1 20.4 16.1 -1.1 30.7 34.3 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.1 17.9 -0.4 41.6 43.7 20.6 21.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.9 18.0 -0.6 38.1 40.9 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.7 20.9 16.5 -1.0 31.9 35.4 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.4 19.0 -0.4 42.0 44.2 19.8 20.9 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.5 19.9 15.6 -0.9 34.1 37.4 19.8 20.7 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.8 19.4 -0.4 42.7 44.8 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 14.5 14.6 13.0 -1.1 30.4 34.3 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.8 18.7 -0.6 38.6 41.3 20.5 21.5 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.2 19.1 -0.3 44.6 46.3 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.2 19.4 -0.3 43.6 45.4 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.0 20.6 17.7 -0.6 39.6 42.0 20.2 21.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.4 20.9 17.6 -0.6 38.7 41.5 20.5 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 19.4 19.6 15.3 -1.1 29.9 33.6 19.8 20.6 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.2 21.0 18.6 -0.3 43.0 45.0 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.4 20.8 16.8 -0.8 35.2 38.3 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.7 14.6 -1.0 32.2 35.8 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.0 19.4 -0.4 43.2 45.2 20.4 21.4 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------